About probabilities

Probabilities can be defined for particular activities. The probability is the percentage chance that the process progresses along a certain path, i.e. the chance that a particular activity will occur in a process. You can model possible real-world simulations by assigning probabilities to various paths in a diagram. Probabilities affect the cost of a process, multiplying each activity cost by the probability that it will occur before adding all costs in order to calculate the total cost of the diagram.

Note: It is possible for the sum of the different paths to add up to more than 100%. By default, TIBCO Nimbus® assumes the paths to be exclusive. However, this is not always the case and multiple probabilities will be calculated for a given activity but capped at 100%. Also, if you are working out the probabilities from a study of volumes of transactions along different paths, these volumes will account for any possible affect of passing along both or all of the various paths at the same time.

Example

In an organization, on average 3 out of 10 invoices that come in relate to MOD contracts. Therefore the probability that an invoice is passed from activity 1 to activity 2 is 30%, i.e. the probability of action 2 occurring is 30%. Out of this 30% of invoices referring to MOD, on average 5% are returned to the supplier, i.e. the probability of action 5 occurring is 5%.

Therefore, the chance that an MOD contract is returned to the supplier is:

30% x 5% = 1.5%

Putting this in terms of diagram cost, the cost of activity 2 is £30 (£100 x 30%) and the cost of activity 5 is £0.15 (£10 x 1.5%).